Pundits' Guide

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While Justin Trudeau's Liberals are trying to shape an economic policy that "builds from the middle out", the political challenge they face is to rebuild their party's vote-share from the centre out.

During the last general election, as John Ivision and others reported at the time, the Liberals' objective was to pursue a two-election strategy in which they would roll over the NDP in 2011, and then having consolidated the centre-left could turn rightwards and defeat a new Conservative leader in 2015. This was the strategy advocated by then-Ignatieff chief-of-staff Peter Donolo, the bulk of whose political experience came in the NDP-less era from 1993 forward, and who readily admits now that they underestimated the NDP in the lead up to the 2011 campaign.

Others have pointed to the lack of fit between the more blue-Liberal vibe of leader Michael Ignatieff and the nod-left tone of the party's "Family Pack" platform. If the party wanted to shift to the left to pick up NDP seats, undoubtedly they had the wrong leader to do so. But at the end of the day, it was exposing their flank to the right that was more costly to the party's seat count on May 2.

There was certainly more positioning than policy being considered during the Liberal leadership race of 2012-13, with the exception of Deborah Coyne who laid out extensive policy options, Joyce Murray who staked out clear policy positions and electoral strategy on the party's left, and Martha Hall Findlay who explicitly advocated a blue Liberal shift, having personally paid the price for lack of sufficient right-ward defences as her Willowdale seat fell along with sufficient others in north Toronto and the 905 to give the Conservatives their majority.

The approach of the Trudeau leadership campaign was for the most part to defer the left-vs-right decision as long as possible, by emphasizing values of Liberal pride, and "hope and hard work", rather than stake out policy positions that could constrain their options down the road. And what policy positions Trudeau did advocate were balanced off against one another. For a position against Northern Gateway, there was support for Keystone XL. For a strongly free trade orientation, there was opposition to ending supply management.

More recently, it has become clear to some observers (not only me) that the Liberals are orienting themselves economically more towards the right. This is a wise decision on their part, given the current weakness of the Conservative government, and also the availability of seats that should be low-hanging fruit for them that the NDP is unlikely to contest on a priority basis. Think Willowdale, but also Eglinton-Lawrence, York Centre, Thornhill, Newmarket, Vaughan, Oak Ridges, Halton, Oakville, Burlington, Wellington-Halton Hills … pretty much any seat with high average incomes and educational attainments, and no historic working class or social democratic voting traditions.

Even in Toronto Centre on Monday, the Liberal margin was bolstered generously from the Liberal-Conservative swing polls in Rosedale, while the NDP added to its strength south of Bloor and otherwise defended its base vote which should be sufficient to win the seat on its new boundaries in 2015.

To the extent that Justin Trudeau's election night remarks about Jack Layton were premeditated rather than ad-libbed, I'm guessing that this clear on-going effort to usurp the upbeat positioning of Barack Obama, personified by Jack Layton in Canada until his recent death, is a key part of the Liberals' play towards their left flank (along with the legalization of marijuana). Again, it's their best play, particularly given the sunny magnetism and youthful demeanour of their new leader, who is strong on the hustings if not in the House. But it did not prove sufficient to collapse the NDP vote in either of the central Canadian by-election seats.

Where Trudeau went too far on Monday night, was in explicitly trying to claim Jack Layton's mantle so soon after his death (and if you doubt the continued depth of feeling about this on the orange team, you haven't watched how your orange friends' Facebook feeds change every year on May 2, August 22 or any of the other meaningful anniversaries). First of all, it was an over-reach of Quayle-an proportions in the sense that if you have to say you're the next Layton instead of simply showing it, the proposition suddenly becomes ridiculous. Secondly, it showed Trudeau not to be a gracious winner (the way Layton had always been) and incapable of observing the gentleman's convention that election nights are for marking the temporary end of hostilities, to allow the parliamentary process to proceed.

But with more far-reaching consequences, Trudeau's comments touched a nerve within a party that has to this point maintained a disciplined public face of solidarity even as it grappled with its own changing of the guard. He at once thoroughly galvanized his competitors for the centre-left behind leader Tom Mulcair, and caused real damage to any future working relationship between the two opposition parties. These are mistakes the far more strategically adroit Layton would never have made, as he prized above-all his ability to work across party lines.

Looking ahead, there are seats the Liberals' growth at the expense of the Conservatives makes easier for them to win (such as the two-way races listed above), and others where it puts the NDP in a better position to win (Saskatchewan, southwest Ontario, and the interior of BC for example). The shadow cast by unpopular provincial governments mid-term will be felt more by the Liberals in 2015 (think Nova Scotia and BC) than by the NDP (as this past month in Manitoba). If the Liberals pursue their current path, and the government continues to suffer under the weight of its own scandals, they could see the Canadian political spectrum reshaped into a Liberal-vs-NDP contest with the Conservatives holding up the rear as a third party: arguably a better reflection of the range of Canadian political views that we have at present.

On the other hand, if they try to fight on two fronts simultaneously, any mistake could see them squeezed from both sides.

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Before the Brandon-Souris contested Liberal nomination meeting could even be called, the race is all over but the victory lap, as candidate Frank Godon withdrew from the race late Friday.

Is the Wheat City really where open nominations go to die, and democracy develops some kind of weird gluten intolerance?

Not if you take everyone at face value. But let's lay out the chronology and let the reader draw his or her own conclusions.

When we last checked in with this "Westman" (i.e., west Manitoba) riding, Progressive Conservative MLA Larry Maguire (Arthur-Virden) had just been acclaimed the federal Conservative candidate, after Brandon city councillor Len Isleifson withdrew from the race, and former Merv Tweed aide, Chris Kennedy, was mysteriously disqualified (in his mind) and/or did not make the cut-off to submit his completed nomination papers (according to CPC HQ).

The Kennedy case is perplexing to outsiders, since Kennedy is adamant that the deposit cheque was affixed to his nomination papers, and that the papers should have arrived in time given he couriered them Tuesday for a Wednesday deadline; while party headquarters is apparently equally adamant to the contrary. 

But the Conservative HQ version is just not sitting well in Brandon, where former Manitoba PC-turned-reluctant-Conservative M.P. Inky Mark is enjoying a bit of an "I-told-you-so", and local commentators are quite shocked at the happenings. Here, for example, is an exerpt from James O'Connor's editorial from the Brandon Sun:

Geez, I’m getting angrier as I write this.

As a former member of the provincial Tories (when I worked for them) and a veteran right-winger in the bloodsport of politics, I am ashamed of the shenanigans which have beset the Conservative nomination process in Brandon-Souris.

And I’m not alone. I hear memberships are being returned to the Tories from people who are also just seething over the injustice.

So I’m supposed to believe that Isleifson — the deputy mayor of Brandon — is lying?

Or am I supposed to believe that a man as smart as Kennedy, who quit his job and was for the past month driving hundreds of kilometers each day and had a solid and star-studded campaign team to bolster support and sell memberships for his nomination run, is lying?

And what about the statement regarding flexibility in "condensed timelines" made by Barker, the local nomination committee member. Was that a lie?

Or am I supposed to believe that the Conservative Party of Canada has lied?

And what do I make of Maguire’s handlers, several of whom are young former Westman political operatives who now work in Toronto and Ottawa?

In fact, it was one of those operatives, […], who personally flew to Ottawa to hand-deliver a bundle of memberships Maguire’s team had sold.

Of the situation, Maguire said publicly last week: "All I can say is what I heard from my people."

Exactly.

This is not about Maguire.

I believe he is a pawn in this whole slimy game.

See, I told you tempers were flaring! The rest of the (very long) column is equally scorching. It's behind a firewall, but if you register with the site you can read the whole thing.

Kennedy, though young, is considered hard-working and whip-smart (and not just in the lip-service way that mavericks are always considered to be, by concern-trolls who want to mau-mau their party, but actually really hard-working and whip-smart), and many thought he had an early leg up on the race. Given the strong and widespread belief that the 2010 Conservative by-election nomination in Dauphin-Swan River-Marquette had been heavily tilted in Robert Sopuck's favour, people are doubly inclined to believe the worst in the case of Kennedy v. Conservative central campaign.

Meanwhile, in the wake of the two Manitoba Conservative acclamations last weekend, and the consequent possibility of snap by-election calls, the Liberals moved first to set their nomination meeting day in Provencher for Wednesday, September 25, then confirmed leader Justin Trudeau's attendance at it, then confirmed Trudeau's visit to Brandon the day before (on Tuesday, September 24).

At more or less this exact moment, Frank Godon announced, first privately and then publicly, that he intended to withdraw from the Liberal nomination race in Brandon, and endorse Rolf Dinsdale, a mere two weeks after getting into the race in the first place.

Godon maintains that he needed to spend more time taking care of his elderly parents, and also wanted to do what was best for the party to give them the best opportunity of winning the by-election (ie, not having to have a "byelection" to run, he tweeted, though I think he meant a "nomination"), and he emphasizes that he was not pressured to do so by anyone higher up. Equally, Rolf Dinsdale has said on Twitter that he would prefer to have an open nomination.

But we can also note that the timing of Godon's withdrawal: a) came conveniently just in time for Trudeau to meet his now-lone presumptive nominee in Brandon on his swing through Manitoba, and b) miraculously happened just before the editor of the Brandon Sun decided to endorse the Liberal candidate in the wake of the apparent Conservative shenanigans.

Again, this is probably all on the up-and-up; but on the other hand, by-elections are a marvellous environment for coincidence*.

In any event, my Manitoba sources don't believe this fracas will amount to too much in the end. The Conservatives would still be expected to win Brandon-Souris handily thanks to the rural areas, though perhaps a little less so this time; while the NDP will almost certainly come a distant second like they always do, say my (non-NDP) sources. The Liberals have not had much on the ground in the riding for some time, though you'd have to acknowledge they're doing not badly in the smoke and mirrors department so far this round.

Kennedy is now looking to a provincial run to replace Maguire, and federal Conservatives are telling O'Connor: "It’s done, get over it." O'Connor may not want to, but it's likely all inside baseball to the voters in this traditionally Conservative riding, the same way Sopuck's nomination was a non-issue at the polls one riding to the north in a by-election three years earlier.

The Greens still have no announced candidate, but are expecting announcements soon, and plan to hold a nomination meeting on Wednesday, October 9.

The NDP nomination meeting is still scheduled for Thursday, October 17, with a deadline for candidates to enter the race of Monday, October 7. To date there are two declared candidates, Cory Szczepanski and John Bouché.

Must read, to get au courant:

• Inky Mark letter to the editor, Brandon Sun – Thu Sep 19 – "Nomination process broken"
• Deveryn Ross column in the Winnipeg Free Press – Thu Sep 19 – "Tory blue riding is seeing red"
• Online Story, Brandon Sun – Fri Sep 20 – "Godon withdraws from Liberal nomination in Brandon-Souris"
• Shaun Cameron's column in the Brandon Sun – Sat Sep 21 – "More questions than answers after nomination process"
• James O'Connor's column in the Brandon Sun – Sat Sep 21 – "Why is this man smiling? The photo was taken before he got kicked in the teeth by his own party — the CPC" (where O'Connor says he will "hold his nose and vote Liberal")

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* If only I could take credit for that delicious phrase, but it actually comes from a terrific court scene in the movie "The Big Easy", where it's applied to the city of New Orleans by a lawyer with a colourful sense of metaphor.

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23 differences I noticed between the Toronto Centre Liberal and NDP nomination meetings Sunday, often highlighting the two very different political party cultures on display yesterday:

Another good roundup comes from blogger Jeff Jedras of BCinTO who attended both meetings as well.

Insta-UPDATE: Must-read take from SunTV's David Akin on both meetings.

Finally, this photo gallery from Michelle Siu for the Globe and Mail highlights the differences between the two meetings very well, two photos from which I've highlighted above.

Although crazy work commitments are keeping me away from all the blogging I'd like to be doing, we were fortunate to snag a guest-post from a political scientist who studied the recent federal Liberal leadership race. Thanks to David McGrane for sharing his recent data and findings with Pundits' Guide readers.

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A Referendum on Electability – The 2013 LPC Leadership Race

by David McGrane

The day that the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC) announced its leadership results, I attempted an experiment with administering a ‘virtual exit poll.’  I set up a 10-15 minute online survey. Just when the leadership results were announced, I posted a link to the survey several times on twitter and Facebook ads began to run that were targeted at LPC supporters. Respondents were entered into a draw for one of ten $20 Tim Horton’s cards as an incentive.

Unfortunately, the experiment did not work.  Depending on where the question was placed in the survey 200 to 330 out of the 104,000 LPC voters completed the survey. As such, the attrition rate was rather high as the survey when along.  Over half of these respondents were from Ontario, while the other respondents were scattered throughout Canada.  Of the 324 respondents who stated their first choice in the leadership the breakdown was a follows: 66% Trudeau, 15% Hall-Findlay, 12% Murray, McCrimmon 3%, Cauchon 2% and Coyne 2%). Registered supporters made up approximately 30% of the sample. In this sense, the sample under-represents Trudeau voters and over-represents voters from Ontario and Hall-Findlay supporters.

When using a convenience sample, such a small sample size prevents me from presenting firm findings about voter behaviour in the LPC leadership race.  On the bright side, the LPC in Saskatchewan did e-mail the survey to their members at the same time. Using this method, I got about 350 or 15% of the Liberal leadership voters in Saskatchewan to fill out the entire survey.  The lesson is that you can’t do ‘end run’ around parties in surveying One-Member-One-Vote leadership races in Canada. You basically need their co-operation or you are out of luck.

I will be using the 350 respondent sample of Saskatchewan Liberals for a future academic paper. However, in this blogpost I will use the other sample of 330 Liberals outside of Saskatchewan to glean some tentative conclusions about why Trudeau won in such a landslide. That is really my question. We knew that Trudeau would probably win the LPC leadership…but why did he win so big?

The intent of the questionnaire was to test what factors influenced LPC voters when they decided to choose their preferred leadership candidate. To limit the length of the survey, I asked questions concerning only the top three candidates (Justin Trudeau, Joyce Murray, and Martha Hall Findlay).  The results are presented below. The sample for these results ranges from 330 LPC voters for questions placed at the beginning of the survey to 200 for question placed at the end of the survey. 

While this sample should not be considered ‘representative’ in a scientific sense, it does give us some clues to the strength of the brand that Trudeau developed among LPC members and registered supporters during the leadership campaign. From the data that I have gathered, Trudeau had significant advantages over his two nearest competitors in all areas of the campaign. However, the areas where Trudeau had the largest advantages were ideology, voter contact, endorsements, and electability.  The biggest factor in Trudeau’s win was his ability to convince LPC that he was the candidate that would win the party the most seats in the next election.  Contributing to his image of electability, respondents felt that Trudeau was a good speaker who looked good on television and that he could provide inspiring, compassionate, and strong leadership to appeal to those who did not vote for the Liberals in the last election. When it came to electability, Trudeau seemed to be a near perfect 10 and that is why he won in a landslide.

But, I did say a ‘near’ perfect 10. The data does reveal some of what the Liberals who took this survey regarded to be their new leader’s liabilities and it reads like a Conservative Party attack ad.  We can see some of the criticism of Trudeau as ‘policy lite’ coming out.  Despite having a much larger and better funded campaign machine, the respondents in the survey were no more aware of Trudeau’s policies than they were aware of the policies of his two closest competitors.  Further, the respondents in the survey were somewhat skeptical about Trudeau’s understanding of the economy and his experience outside politics.  Compared to Trudeau, they saw Martha Hall Findlay as the more knowledge and intelligent candidate who had a better grasp of the economy and superior experience outside of politics. Murray was seen as an honest and moral candidate who had good experience inside and outside politics. Though they couldn’t match his style, Hall Findlay and Murray were seen as having some the substance that Trudeau lacked.

Ideology and Policies

My data indicates that Trudeau did a very good job at positioning himself in the middle of the left/right ideological spectrum of the Liberal Party.  Respondents were asked to place themselves, Trudeau, Murray, and Hall-Findlay on an 11-point scale with 0 being the far left of the LPC and 10 being the far right of the LPC.  The mean placement for the LPC voters was 5.96, which was close to how they judged Trudeau who scored 6.15. The other two candidates were judged to be more on the ideological extremes of the LPC. Hall-Findlay was viewed as being on the right of the LPC with a score of 7.54, while Murray was viewed at being on the left of LPC with a score 3.87.

On two of the controversial issues of the campaign, the LPC voters seemed to side with Trudeau. For instance, respondents were asked to place themselves on the following scale: 0 = the Liberal Party of Canada needs find ways to co-operate with the NDP and Greens to prevent vote splitting and defeat the Conservatives in the next election and 10 = the Liberal Party of Canada should run candidates in all ridings in the next federal election and not cooperate with the NDP or the Greens in any way. The mean of 7.56 clearly leans towards Trudeau’s position of non-co-operation.  The Northern Gateway pipeline ended up being a divisive issue in the LPC leadership race with Hall-Findlay strongly supporting it and Murray strongly opposing it.  As such, respondents were asked to indicate their position on the following scale:  “0 Liberals should oppose pipelines to bring raw bitumen from Alberta’s oil sands to the West coast and 10= Liberals should support the development of Alberta's oil sands through the building of pipelines to West coast.”  The mean of the respondents was 5.70 indicating that Trudeau’s wishy-washy position of supporting the Northern Gateway pipeline but not its current route was the safest position to take.  

The fact the Trudeau was more ideologically in tune with LPC voters in the survey came out when respondents were asked how much they agreed with his policies that they had heard about. Of those who remember hearing about Trudeau’s policies, they were asked to indicate their level of agreement on a 1-5 scale (1=agreed with all of his policies, 2=agreed with most of his policies, 3=agreed with some of his policies and disagreed with others, 4= disagreed with most of his policies, 5=disagreed with all of his policies). Trudeau scored a mean of 2.14.  When the same question was asked of other candidates, Hall-Findlay scored 2.71 and Murray scored 3.06.   

Effectiveness of Trudeau’s Campaign Machine

Interestingly, the Trudeau campaign had an advantage over other campaigns when it came to contacting voters but it did not do a superior job at communicating Trudeau’s policy positions.  On a scale of 1-6 (1= zero contact and 6=over 20 contacts), the Trudeau campaign scored a mean of 4.65 compared to 3.45 for the Hall-Findlay campaign and 3.44 for the Murray campaign.  However, when respondents were asked if they remembered hearing about any of the candidates policies, Trudeau’s advantage nearly disappears.  On a scale of 1-3 (1=hearing about several policies, 2=hearing about one or two policies, 3=hearing about no policies), the Trudeau campaign scored a mean of 1.57 that was relatively close to the means of 1.61 for the Murray campaign and 1.69 for the Hall-Findlay campaign.

Endorsements

As could be expected, the respondents were much more impressed with Trudeau’s endorsements than with the endorsements of the other candidates. Using a 0 to 10 scale (0=not impressed at all and 10=very impressed), respondents were asked how impressed they were with the candidates’ endorsements by “MPs and other notable people.” The mean for Trudeau was 7.00 which was much higher the mean for either Murray (4.89) or Hall-Findlay (3.80). 

Electability

Trudeau’s largest advantage over his opponents was in the area of electability. The voters in the LPC leadership race who took the survey clearly believed that Trudeau was most able of the candidates to win more seats for the party in the next election.  Respondents were asked: “On a scale of 0 to 10, during the leadership race, how did you rate the ability of the following candidates to win more seats for the Liberal Party of Canada in future elections? 0 = not very able to win more seats, 10 = very able to win more seats.”  Murray scored a mean of 4.89 and Hall-Findlay scored a mean of 5.48.  Trudeau scored a whopping 9.88 which is close to a perfect 10! 

The media may have played a role here as 96% of the respondents choose Trudeau as the candidate that the media thought would win the most seats for the LPC in the next election.  When asked on a 0-10 scale how favourable the media coverage of the candidates was (0=not very favourable and 10=very favourable), Trudeau scored a mean of 8.74 compared to the lower scores of Murray (6.41) and Hall-Findlay (6.14).

Leader Abilities and Character Traits

The respondents were given a list of things at which successful leaders of political parties much excel. The respondents were then asked how they rated the abilities of the three candidates in these areas based on 1-4 scale (1=poor, 2=fair, 3=good, 4=excellent).  The mean scores for Trudeau were highest on “looking good on television” (3.84), “being a good public speaker” (3.65), and “being able to appeal to those who did not vote for the Liberals in the last election.”  Trudeau’s lowest scores were “being hard for the Conservatives to attack” (2.34), “having good experience outside of politics” (2.62), and “understanding the economy” (2.65). By coincidence, the two latter themes were picked by the Conservatives in their first attack ads against Trudeau. Perhaps, voters in the LPC leadership race had some of the same concerns about Trudeau as the Conservatives’ focus groups.

As for Hall-Findlay, she beat Trudeau on “understanding the economy” (3.06 versus 2.65), “being hard for the Conservatives to attack” (2.69 versus 2.34), and “having good experience outside of politics” (2.91 versus 2.62).  The only area where Murray beat Trudeau was her experience outside of politics  (2.96 versus 2.62). Although, reflecting her standing as a MP, she did come close to beating Trudeau when it came to “having good experience inside politics”: Murray scored 2.91 to Trudeau’s 2.96. Finally, all three candidates scored nearly the same on “understanding social policy issues like healthcare and education” (Trudeau scored 3.03, Hall-Findlay scored 2.93, and Murray scored 2.92). 

Similarly, respondents were given a list of positive character traits and asked how well these traits described the three candidates (1=not well at all, 2=not to well, 3=quite well, 4=extremely well).  Trudeau scored highest on “inspiring” (3.62), “compassionate” (3.52), and “provides strong leadership” (3.37) and his lowest scores were on “knowledgeable” (2.93) and “sensible” (3.05). Hall-Findlay beat Trudeau when it came to “knowledgeable” (3.16 versus 2.93) and “intelligent” (3.36 versus 3.14) while her lowest scores were on “inspiring” (2.39).  Murray narrowly beat Trudeau on three traits: “moral” (3.27 versus 3.22), “honest” (3.26 versus 3.24), and “knowledgeable” (2.99 versus 2.93).  Murray’s weakest score was on “provides strong leadership” (2.34).

Conclusion

According to this data, Justin Trudeau won a landslide in the LPC leadership race because the campaign became a referendum on which candidate could deliver the most seats for the party in the next election.  Trudeau was able to build up an image for himself in the party as the candidate who had the most endorsers, contacted LPC members and registered supporters the most, took positions that had broad support in the party, and was favoured by the media.  He had an image of a compassionate and inspiring candidate who was telegenic, a good speaker, and attractive to traditionally Liberal voters who may have drifted away to support other parties. All of these factors led Trudeau to be seen as the most ‘electable’ candidate. Once he was seen this way, whatever reservations Liberals may have had concerning his experience outside of politics or his political knowledge faded. His campaign took on an air of invincibility and he steamrolled to victory. 

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David McGrane, Ph.D, is a Professor of Political Studies at St. Thomas More College in the University of Saskatchewan, and the author of the chapter on the NDP in the regular Carleton University collection “The Canadian Federal Election of 2011”. He has studied several federal and provincial leadership conventions in Canada. Read more at davidmcgrane.ca.

The "Leadership Primary" – currently in the news as a proposal before next week's Liberal Party convention – has been tried before as a method of increasing media coverage of the succession in smaller parties, the most notable recent example being the Federal NDP in 1995, after their brutal rout in the 1993 general election.

The party organized a series of regional and labour primaries in advance of the convention, designed to give regional candidates a base from which to build, and as a way of screening out candidates who could not win at least one of the primaries from consideration at the party convention in October.

Four candidates entered the race, and all but author Herschel Hardin passed the one-primary or 25% overall vote threshold (Hardin penned a very interesting personal history of his journey in the race afterwards, excerpts of which can be found on his website here).

Long-time activist M.P. Svend Robinson won the Québec, Ontario, and BC/Northern primaries, while veteran M.P. (indeed veteran leadership candidate) Lorne Nystrom won the Prairie and Labour primaries, and former Nova Scotia NDP leader Alexa McDonough won the Atlantic primary. Given the preponderance of the NDP membership on the prairies at that time, Nystrom looked like the prohibitive front-runner at the end of that process.

But, the total primary vote bore no outcome to the result at the October 1995 convention. McDonough had won 18.5% of the vote or so during the primaries, and was considered to be out of the race.  However, she went on to command a sufficiently strong 32.5% vote amongst convention delegates (remembering that the convention was held in Ontario), leaving the first-place Robinson scrambling to beat Nystrom to the stage to claim credit for the inevitable outcome, once third-place Nystrom was dropped after the first ballot.

So, Nystrom won the primaries, Robinson won the first ballot, and McDonough won the leadership. And Herschel Hardin got a very interesting book out of it all.

Here are the detailed results:

1995 Federal NDP Leadership Primary Vote vs Convention Vote

Thanks to a friendly archivist for digging up the raw figures and sending them along. We'll review the other NDP leadership contest history in another post.

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For the latest on the NDP Leadership Race, don't forget to follow the half-hourly news updates, and social media tickers at the Pundits' Guide NDPLdr portal page:  http://ndpldr.punditsguide.ca

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As a follow to our last post on the latest filings from the 2006 Liberal leadership contestants with outstanding debts to pay off, I've compiled the fundraising totals reported in each of the contestant's interim and/or final/amended returns at the Elections Canada website.

UPDATE: More from Glen McGregor here, where he puts all the fundraising data into his Tableau software and analyzes it by size, date and location.

And one of the minor candidates is standing out from all the others.

First up is the monetary fundraising by the four major candidates (i.e., those who finished up in the top 4 spots, and whose initial placement and subsequent movements determined the final outcome, and all of whom raised at least one million dollars).

[Note: on the Finances page of this website I show the monetary + non-monetary contributions to political parties. In this instance I'm showing the monetary only, as the non-monetary ("in-kind") contributions were mostly insignificant and an extra step in the calculations. Eventually, I'll report everything properly.]

[Click on image to open full-sized version]

Of these four candidates, Messrs. Rae and Ignatieff have long ago filed final returns, with Mr. Ignatieff raising around $204K in the last six months of 2008, and Mr. Rae filing his final return a month before this timeframe.

Mr. Dion is now within $30,000 of retiring his debts, having raised some $615K since June of 2008 (albeit most of it in the first 18 months of the timeframe). Gerard Kennedy has raised $193K since June, 2008, with $108K to go.

Next we look at the lower-tier candidates with outstanding obligations, and notice that Maurizio Bevilacqua's performance stands out from the crowd, over the three years since the end of the leadership contest period.

[Note that Carolyn Bennett also had a $0 balance when she completed her filings shortly after the contest concluded. She had raised a total of $170K during her campaign.]

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Here we see that Mr. Bevilacqua raised $269K from June 2008 to June 2011, while Martha Hall Findlay raised $87K, Ken Dryden raised $78K, Joe Volpe raised $62K, and Hedy Fry raised $23K. Scott Brison raised $52K – most of it in the first year – which was sufficient to retire his debts and file his final return.

So, Maurizio Bevilacqua raised as much as four of the other five minor candidates combined, most of it during the period between June, 2009 and December, 2010, and he is now $33K or so away from retiring his debts as well. The bulk of his fundraising would have come during the lead-up to last November's municipal election, when he successfully ran to become the Mayor of Vaughan, Ontario. He must have been highly focused on getting this issue put behind him before switching gears in his political career.

Bevilacqua was also the only candidate to borrow more than the value of his reported leadership campaign expenses, the difference in spending being mostly accounted for by interest costs and a charge for membership forms, neither of which are included as campaign expenses for the purpose of leadership contests, and the $50K refundable entrance fee paid to the Liberal Party, which is said to be before the courts.

Selected Metrics, 2006 Liberal Leadership Contest

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The strategic vote bump the Liberals are currently enjoying from the one daily tracking pollster of the campaign belies the undeniable weakening of the party's organization outside their traditional and dwindling number of strongholds in the Atlantic provinces, anglophone Quebec, and metropolitan Ontario.

In the lead-up to the March 25 non-confidence vote in the Commons, the Liberals lost more candidates than any other party except the Greens (who themselves set a new record for slate churn), with supposedly key swing ridings losing strong candidates, including high-profile business-woman Deborah Gillis in Halton, Margaret Black in Newmarket-Aurora, ON, the former mayor of Telkwa, BC Sharon Hartwell, Québec city nutritionist Anne Gagné, credit-union manager Louis Bérubé in Richmond-Arthabaska, QC, and France Beaulieu in Saint-Maurice-Champlain amongst others, all of which had to be backfilled with newcomers in the final weeks before nominations close on Monday.

In all, 39 duly nominated Liberal candidates have stepped down for one reason or another in this pre-election cycle, as compared with 22 New Democrats, 20 Conservatives, 1 Bloquiste, and at least 123 Greens (and those were just the Greens I was able to document).

Even in the weeks leading up to the campaign, the Liberals still had no candidates in major Ontario battleground ridings around Toronto, such as Burlington, Cambridge, Durham, Halton, Newmarket-Aurora, or Oshawa, nor in Simcoe-Grey. And the party had numerous holes in its western slate.

While no party is strong everywhere in the country, the once "natural governing party" has been left to beg for a local candidate in the Red Deer paper, a slot it has still not filled at time of writing. The Bloc was the first party to field a full slate (at least for them), several days into the campaign. The NDP followed with the first full national slate last Monday, the same day the Conservatives completed the 307 slots they probably intend to fill (no candidate is yet named to run against Independent M.P. André Arthur). However, the Liberals were still scrambling for 5 candidates in BC, 4 in Alberta, and 1 in Nunavut, as of last Monday.

They've since filled all but Red Deer, and in the case of Nunavut with a very strong candidate indeed: territorial speaker and former premier Paul Okalik who says he made up his mind to run the previous weekend after listening to Conservative Leader Stephen Harper. Okalik will now be running against his former Finance Minister, first-term Conservative M.P. Leona Aglukkaq.

But after losing a candidate in Manicouagan to a successful hit from the NDP's researchers, it took them three days to find replacement candidate Simon Bérubé, while the NDP replaced Ryan Dolby in Elgin-Middlesex-London with CAW local activist within 24 hours. Fortunately for the Liberals, disgraced "association for the rights of whites" founder André Forbes' signs didn't need to be taken down in Manicouagan, as they had never gone up except for one in the main intersection of Baie Comeau. Jack Layton went on to fill a room in a boisterous rally for his new candidate outside London, but meanwhile it's not Michael Ignatieff who's been to Baie Comeau, but Gilles Duceppe to defend his Bloc incumbent from the sudden growth in NDP support.

The Liberal Party also has more incumbents in serious trouble than other opposition parties. At least 17 incumbents are facing uphill battles or unusually strong challenges across the country, with another open seat likely out of contention, and four other open seats seeing open competition. Should the polls deteriorate further for the Liberals, obviously, more of the seats around Toronto would be in play, as they are more party brand seats than local MP ones, being in a large metropolitan area.

• In Newfoundland, Avalon M.P. Scott Andrews and St. John's South-Mount Pearl M.P. Siobhan Coady are facing challenges from a former provincial cabinet minister and a former Senator running for the Conservatives, with the NDP's returning candidate Ryan Cleary playing an unknown role in the likely three-way split in the latter case, given his second place finished in 2008, and the whipped gun registry vote playing spoiler in the former.
• In Prince Edward Island, class of 1988 Liberal M.P. Lawrence MacAuley is facing an unexpectedly strong threat from sharp-elbowed former provincial cabinet minister Mike Currie, with fellow Liberal M.P. Wayne Easter long since targeted by veterinarian Tim Ogilvie, also for the Conservatives. The open seat of Charlottetown may be the Liberals' strongest on the Island now.
• In Nova Scotia, Dartmouth-Cole Harbour M.P. Mike Savage is facing a very strong challenge from former provincial NDP leader Robert Chisholm, as evidenced by the visits of both party leaders to that riding early in the campaign.
• In New Brunswick, where their provincial cousins were decimated in last fall's provincial election, and reduced to a rump on the francophone east shore, the Liberals lost candidates in the months leading up to the non-confidence vote, both in Fredericton (Pamela Campbell) and Fundy Royal (Dave Delaney), and former Ignatieff chief of staff Paul Zed bowed out of running in Saint John at the last minute. The party has since refilled those slots, and in Saint John finally installed the former deputy mayor Stephen Chase last Tuesday, but as of yesterday there were still no Liberal signs up in their former stronghold of Saint John [UPDATE: another reader says more like the day before yesterday], while the Conservatives were out of the gate early, and even the NDP who had moved their top-performing 2008 candidate UNB economist Rob Moir over from Fundy Royal to Saint John last month, had their signs up within two days of the writ being issued. On the bright side for the Liberals, Bernard Lord declined to enter the race for the Conservatives in Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe leaving Liberal M.P. Brian Murphy on much safer ground, but meanwhile Liberal Jean-Claude d'Amours is now facing his strongest possible Conservative opponent in former Mulroney-era cabinet minister Bernard Valcourt, whose sister was elected provincially last fall alongside three other provincial Conservatives in his federal riding of Madawaska-Restigouche, in another rural Liberal seat likely to fall victim to the gun registry three-line whip.
• In Québec, future leadership hopeful Justin Trudeau is in a hard-fought contest to hold off the Bloc Québécois M.P. he defeated in 2008, Vivian Barbot, in the riding of Papineau (one of the eight ridings that has come within 5% in each of the last three elections), as is south shore M.P. Alexandra Mendès in Brossard-La Prairie. And in Hull-Aylmer, Liberal whip Marcel Proulx is facing a stiff challenge from former PSAC president and Gatineau ombudsman Nycole Turmel for the NDP, whom Proulx accused of having played footsie with the separatists (a jab timed to coincide with Jack Layton's visit to campaign with her last weekend), apparently forgetting that he had also subsequently tried to recruit her as a Liberal candidate himself. The now-open Liberal seat of Laval-les-Îles meanwhile features a young (and very pregnant!) new Liberal candidate of Haitian background, Karine Joizil, but who was appointed on the heels of much backroom biting, to run against returning Bloc candidate Mohadeli Jetha, who hails from Burundi, along with the former president of the Order of Engineers of Quebec, Zaki Ghavitian for the Conservatives, and trade unionist François Pilon for the NDP. Its prospects are still unclear, but are expected to hinge on the national question in Quebec.
• In Ontario, the Conservative assault on Mark Holland in Ajax-Pickering suffered a setback this week, when star candidate Chris Alexander's inelegant handling of questions about poverty in Canada exposed his inexperience as a politician. But with Conservative Leader Stephen Harper making repeated visits to Mississauga and Brampton, Liberal MPs Ruby Dhalla, Andrew Kania are in very stiff fights; with their neighbouring caucus members unable to coast to their formerly easy victories anymore either. In the north of Toronto class of 1988 M.P.'s Joe Volpe's campaign skills will be severely put to the test by returning Conservative candidate Joe Oliver; while to the south, NDP party president and former MP Peggy Nash appears to have landed a punch on Gerard Kennedy in Parkdale-High Park with the accusation that he had missed a third of the votes in the Commons. Some Liberals privately worried in January that more seats would be on the chopping block, but so far the jury is out. It is also an open question what the state of the race will look like in the open seats of Scarborough-Rouge River and Mississauga East-Cooksville, but I don't have anything really to report in those either, while Kingston and the Islands so far looks to be an open race as well. The Conservatives also seem very interested in Guelph riding, given the Conservative leaders tour visit, though Liberal Frank Valeriote is said to have been working hard locally, and the riding has dashed the Conservatives' hopes before.
• Fortunately for the Liberals, the Conservative Party's own candidate troubles in several western ridings mean that the heat is off Anita Neville in Winnipeg South Centre for now (though the Conservatives have nominated a former Liberal Joyce Bateman to replace their former candidate Ray Hall). But in the north end, the party's new by-election M.P. Kevin Lamoureux, who was elected with the admitted support of nearly half the party's national infrastructure last November (the other half going to Vaughan), will now have to face the NDP's entire Manitoba machine on his own, and with his party's recent dalliance with "white rights" advocates looking to have exactly the opposite effect on turnout amongst aboriginal voters as the snowstorm had last winter.
• On the west coast, Ujjal Dosanjh and Joyce Murray are facing very well funded and stiff challenges from Wei Young and Deborah Meredith in Vancouver, while in Newton-North Delta Sukh Dhaliwal has another three-way fight on his hands, with strong Indo-Canadian women challengers from both the NDP and Conservatives this time (former BC Teachers' Federation president Jimmy Sims for the NDP, and Mani Fallon for the Conservatives who will benefit from the party's ability to divert attention and resources away from Fleetwood-Port Kells), and with both their leaders making visits to the riding, but as yet no visit from Michael Ignatieff. Keith Martin's open seat is now viewed by veteran local observers as returning to its Conservative-NDP roots, the Liberals not having won the seat on their own without Keith Martin on the ballot since 1968.
• And north of 60, Larry Bagnell will face his toughest reelection in years, on the wrong side of the gun registry issue in Yukon, as well.

Realistic pickup opportunities are more sparse for them, one veteran Ontario observer only being able to name two seats on budget night, though I'm sure they would add a few more to the list by now.

• They'll be trying to hold what they have in the Atlantic.
• In eastern Québec, their two best prospects are Nancy Charest in Haute Gaspésie-La Mitis-Matane-Matapédia and Denis Paradis in Brome-Missisquoi, the former running in a seat where the outgoing Bloc MP's performance remains a lingering campaign issue, and the latter in a seat with a weak Conservative candidate less likely to benefit from that party's apparent overtaking of the Liberals as the federalist option in that part of the province.
• In Montréal, hope remains for Noushig Eloyan in Ahuntsic against the Bloc's Maria Mourani and Marc Bruneau against the Bloc's Thierry St-Cyr (a race that also features strong entries from the NDP and Conservatives), but was dashed for former Justice Minister Martin Cauchon in this morning's CROP poll of Outremont, showing NDP lieutenant Tom Mulcair with a 20-point lead (though also sealing a reprieve for Francis Scarpaleggia from the accident-prone candidacy of Conservative Larry Smith).
• In western Québec, they still hold out hope for Steve MacKinnon in Gatineau, based on a pre-writ Segma poll showing the Liberals in second place behind the Bloc. But that poll used party names rather than candidate names and predated the subsequent CROP poll showing the Liberals in fourth place province-wide. Locally, the race is believed to be between incumbent Bloc M.P. Richard Nadeau and Françoise Boivin for the NDP. Lawrence Cannon does not seem to be in serious danger so far from his Liberal opponent in Pontiac this time either, though notably the Conservatives had a bit of trouble recruiting candidates to run in both Gatineau and Hull-Aylmer.
• In eastern Ontario, the Liberals' best hopes, however distant, lie with candidates in more francophone ridings, such as Julie Bourgeois in Glengarry-Prescott-Russell, Bernadette Clement in Stormont-Dundas-South Glengarry, and David Bertschi in Ottawa-Orleans, though recently-nominated former Toronto Board of Trade COO Grant Humes seems set to make Bev Oda work very hard for her return to Ottawa in Durham riding in the 905 East.
• In Toronto, Omar Alghabra in Conservative-held Mississauga-Erindale is a sentimental favourite for Liberals wanting to see his return to the Commons, while NDPer Olivia Chow's seat of Trinity-Spadina is the unsentimental demographic target and the NDP seat they'd next-most like to nab with Outremont being out of play. UPDATE: north of Toronto, they believe they have a much stronger candidate in Mario Ferri, in order to retake Vaughan from Conservative Julian Fantino.
• Moving around the horseshoe, the party is counting on being able to win a two-way fight against Conservatives in Oakville with candidate Max Khan, and counting on Maria Bountrogianni's previous record against NDP M.P. Chris Charlton in Hamilton Mountain, where the two have crossed swords provincially in the past. They also have a strong challenger to Conservative M.P. Ed Holder in former party national president Doug Ferguson in London West.
• Moving a bit northwest of Toronto, Liberals would desperately like to win back their Kitchener seats, particularly Kitchener Centre, where former caucus whip Karen Redmond is running for reelection, and they're holding a candle for a win on the split in Simcoe-Grey where Helena Guergis is running for reelection as an Independent Conservative (though the Simcoe politics blog reports Guergis as winning the sign war to date). They also have a surprisingly strong local candidate Kimberley Love in Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound, a riding that's been perennial hope of the Green Party which seems to have picked a smart young candidate with little local draw this time and is thus unlikely to maintain its second place finish from 2008. But here again, popular Conservative incumbent Larry Miller is considered the easy favourite.
• Another Liberal hoped-for pickup in Sudbury seems to be fading away as multiple observers report it's the Conservative candidate Fred Slade now running the strongest challenge against first-time NDP incumbent Glenn Thibeault.
• Terry Duguid in Winnipeg South is the best hope for a Liberal pickup in Manitoba against Conservative M.P. Rod Bruinooge, though the party can't give up on its former francophone base in Saint-Boniface, currently held by Conservative Shelly Glover, where the Liberal M.P. she defeated Ray Simard is running to regain his seat.
• After that, they got nothing until you get to the waterfront in Vancouver, where they'd like to win back Richmond from Alice Wong with candidate and former Canadian Alliance-turned-Liberal M.P. Joe Peschisolido, and take back West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea-to-Sky Country from John Weston with Dan Veniez, but probably have the better chance winning back North Vancouver from Andrew Saxton with newcomer Taleeb Noormohamed. John Ivison reports from the west coast that their try for Vancouver-Kingsway, currently held by the NDP's Don Davies, looks unlikely to succeed at this point for candidate Wendy Yuan.
• Two bright spots for the Liberals might be north of 60, where they've recruited two former territorial leaders to run, Joe Handley quite some time ago in Western Arctic, and Paul Okalik just this past week in Nunavut. However, remote ridings are incredibly difficult to out-organize an incumbent in, giving Handley the better chance than Okalik given his earlier start and the cabinet status of Conservative M.P. Leona Aglukkaq. The Conservatives in Western Arctic may also have outsmarted themselves by appointing recent Liberal and territorial health minister Sandy Lee to be their candidate the other week, virtually guaranteeing her no local campaign backup from what's said to be a very grumpy riding association that was last heard to be appealing the appointment to headquarters. Still Handley will be running on his party's position favouring the long gun registry, and against a New Democrat who did not switch his vote, two-term MP Dennis Bevington.

So, best case, 15-18 possible pickups, as against 18 incumbents facing troubles.

That being the case, where is this so-called "squeeze" on the NDP? There would appear to be three aspects to it:

• Liberals will name several NDP seats they believe they can take, some more credibly than others in my view, but often named are: Hamilton Mountain, Trinity-Spadina, London-Fanshawe, Vancouver-Kingsway, St. John's East, Halifax, Ottawa Centre, and the list pretty well trails off after there. No-one is seriously claiming anymore that the Liberals are any threat in northern Ontario ridings, and particularly not in northwestern Ontario where the NDP incumbents voted against the gun registry. If they were, the Liberal leader's tour would have been up there by now. And with the Liberals having fallen to third place in Windsor and the other 2 of the 3 Hamilton seats, regaining those seats seems more of an uphill battle. Regardless, any seats the Liberals win from the NDP or vice versa, are all about enhancing their relative bargaining positions after the election, and not about unseating the Conservative government, contrary to what is being implied by the Liberals' claim they are the only alternative government possible.
• They could also try to execute a "squeeze" by attracting 2008 NDP voters over to the Liberals in seats now held by the Liberals under threat, or which the Liberals would like to win back from the Conservatives in Ontario and the Atlantic provinces, or perhaps by appealing to folks in those provinces who voted Green in protest in 2008 and might be tempted to move on over to the NDP, to move on back to the Liberals instead. But in the last election, the Liberals and NDP both lost votes at the same time in 88 of Ontario's 106 ridings, and the NDP only gained at the Liberals' expense in 15 of them. 2008 Green party supporters would appear to be a better prospect, given that they gained at the Liberals' expense in 102 of the 106 ridings, or even previous Non-Voters who increased in numbers where the Liberal vote dropped in 103 of 106 seats.
• Finally, they seem to be trying to carry off a different kind of squeeze by sending Bob Rae out on secondary tour in support of the Liberal campaigns in ridings where the NDP could make gains at the expense of the Conservatives. Rae has been spotted in Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar, Vancouver Island North, and Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca in the past week. So, perhaps part of the attempted squeeze is to prevent the NDP from increasing its relative seat strength with western gains, even if it means reelecting Conservatives.

Now, organizationally, the Liberals are doing a good job filling halls for leader's tour events. But while the party's tour events are drawing critical acclaim from the national media, no-one seems to be noticing their concentration in traditional areas of Liberal strength. Today, for example, they're in Scarborough, supposedly a bastion of Liberal support. Is it that they're concerned about losing the open seat of Scarborough-Rouge River to some other party, or that they know they can at least fill a hall in Scarborough?

With the nominations data entry all but finished now (and thank goodness for that!), we'll continue our unvarnished look at the various parties' prospects in subsequent posts.

Time to mix up the modus operandi, dear readers. To methodically catch up on the nomination news, I was going to work my way through all the three-way races, followed by the two-way races, the first-time incumbents, and then work our way across the country province-by-province east to west, in a leisurely but fulsome way.

Forget that. I think we're into it now, and so I better get up to date PDQ.

Hence if you have nomination news to pass along, let's hear it all in the comments, and meanwhile I'll be working through my emails, tweets, DMs, clipping archives, and all the usual sources. With any luck and a bit of elbow grease, we'll have a reliable count in a week's time or so.

What's needed:

• Party – Riding – Nomination / Selection Date – Candidate
• Nomination "Type" – was it by acclamation, a contested nomination, an appointment, other, etc.
• A link to some online reference to the nomination, preferably a news story or two with some good local information and/or attendance counts at the nomination meeting and vote counts if they released them
• The candidate's website, if any, or Facebook fan page
• I'm experimentally collecting some other data about candidates as well for future incorporation into the site (the kind not reported to Elections Canada, which collects occupation and residence), such as: electoral experience at other levels, ethnicity, union affiliation, language of preference, Facebook page, etc. I'm not trying to reinvent the wheel in competing with any of the excellent sites already running at HowdTheyVote.ca, PoliTwitter.ca or OpenParliament.ca, but this would be a great dataset to collect. Send it if you got it.

To see what's already in the database, here are the lists of nominated candidates that have been assembled thus far:

• For the Liberals
• For the NDP
• For the Green Party
• For the Bloc Québécois
• For the Conservatives
• Everyone

As a sideline to help with it all, I'm resurrecting the nomination meeting data countdown. So far we have:

• Lib – Esquimalt — Juan de Fuca, BC – Mon Feb 21 – David Hodgins, Lillian Szpak
• NDP – Burnaby — Douglas, BC – Fri Feb 25 – Sam Schechter, Kennedy Stewart
• Lib – Fort McMurray — Athabaska, AB – Sat Feb 26 – {names?}
• NDP – Pitt Meadows — Maple Ridge — Mission, BC – Sun Mar 6 – Elizabeth Rosenau, Craig Speirs

… but there's got to be more. If you can have other meetings to add, please send them in, and I'll get the list put back up in the left-hand column. Once we get the current list of candidates, and candidates stepped down, we'll get onto the upcoming nominations.

If you sent something in before, I'll find it eventually, so please don't be offended. If you're not easily offended and don't mind sending it again, I'll of course be eternally grateful.

So: one week to get the list up to date, people. We can do it!

And I'll tweet 'em if I get 'em @punditsguide, or if you'd rather correspond by email, you can reach me at alice@punditsguide.ca.

Meanwhile, here are all the nominations from the four major parties that I've been able to identify, that were not in the database, but are now. The Greens have had a bit more churn (which means a bit more work for me), and will thus be the focus of a subsequent update, along with some of the smaller and/or newer parties.

Ready? Here we go:

Recent additions and deletions from the Liberal party slate:

• Lib – Saskatoon — Wanuskewin, SK – Sat Dec 12, 2009 – Retired nurse Patricia Zipchen was renominated by acclamation
• Lib – Cypress Hill — Grasslands, SK – Fri Jul 23 – Farmer Duane Filson was renominated by acclamation
• Lib – Chatham-Kent — Essex, ON – Fri Aug 13 – Steve Pickard stepped down in order to deal with recent events
• Lib – Edmonton — Mill Woods — Beaumont, AB – Mon Aug 23 – Former NDP candidate for the same riding, Michael Butler, was acclaimed
• Lib – Okanagan — Shuswap, BC – Mon Aug 23 – Social worker Janna Francis was renominated by acclamation
• Lib – Charleswood — St. James — Assiniboia – Tue Oct 19 – First-time candidate, small business person Rob Clement was acclaimed
• Lib – Lasalle — Émard, QC – Sun Nov 14 – First-time M.P. Lisa Zarac was renominated by acclamation
• Lib – Okanagan — Coquihalla, BC – Fri Nov 19 – Ross Rebagliati resigned due to family and personal reasons
• Lib – Gaspésie — Îles-de-la-Madeleine, QC – Sun Nov 28 – Recreation director Jules Duguay was acclaimed
• Lib – Beauport — Limoilou, QC – Sun Nov 28 – Small business owner Lorraine Chartier was acclaimed
• Lib – Charlesbourg — Haute-Ste-Charles, QC – Sun Nov 28 – Public relations specialist Martine Gaudreault acclaimed
• Lib – Louis-Hébert, QC – Sun Nov 28 – Lawyer and former president of the Québec Winter Carnival Jean Beaupré was also acclaimed
• Lib – Ottawa West — Nepean, ON – Sun Nov 28 – Long-time party insider Anita Vandenbeld won a contested nomination over University of Ottawa prof Nour El Kadri
• Lib – Hochelaga, QC – Sat Dec 4 – Gilbert Thibodeau was acclaimed
• Lib – Prince Edward — Hastings, ON – Sat Dec 11 – Former Military Police Complaints Commission Chair Peter Tinsley acclaimed
• Lib – Edmonton East, AB – Fri Dec 17 – IT Management Consultant Shafik Ruda was nominated
• Lib – Calgary East – Fri Jan 14 – Political scientist and former journalist Josipa Petrunic was acclaimed
• Lib – New Westminster — Coquitlam, BC – Sat Jan 15 – By-election candidate Ken Beck Lee was renominated
• Lib – Calgary Northeast, AB – Sun Jan 16 – Retired Calgary police officer Cam Stewart was acclaimed
• Lib – Halton, ON – Tue Jan 18 – Appointed candidate, businesswoman Deborah Gillis resigned to take a job with Catalyst Canada
• Lib – Windsor — Tecumseh – Wed Jan 19 – Investment advisor Pat Brough resigned due to changes in her personal and professional life
• Lib – Ancaster — Dundas — Flamborough — Westdale, ON – Sat Jan 22 – Former Hamilton councillor David Braden won a contested nomination over Anne Tennier and Brian Kerman
• Lib – Parry Sound — Muskoka, ON – Fri Jan 28 – Small business owner Cindy Waters was acclaimed to replace Shawn Pudsey who stepped down in July to focus on his health
• Lib – Regina — Qu'Appelle, SK – Sat Jan 29 – Jackie Miller was acclaimed
• Lib – Palliser, SK – Sat Jan 29 – Construction project manager Russell Collicott was acclaimed

Recent additions and deletions from the NDP slate:

• NDP – Kings — Hants, NS – Sun Mar 14 – United Church minister David Hewitt was acclaimed
• NDP – Selkirk — Interlake, MB – Sat Apr 24 – Former riding association president Sean Palsson won a contested nomination against Wayne James
• NDP – Shefford, QC – Mon May 31 – Horticulturalist Réjean Genest of Les Beaux Jardins was acclaimed
• NDP – Longeuil — Pierre Boucher, QC – Wed Jun 9 – Television production specialist Pierre Nantel won a contested nomination over Djaouida Sellah
• NDP – Edmonton — St. Albert, AB – Tue Jul 6 – Former Edmonton — Sherwood Park candidate, child and youth care worker Brian Labelle was acclaimed
• NDP – Wetaskiwin, AB – Fri Aug 13 – 2004 and 2008 candidate Tim Robson was renominated by acclamation
• NDP – Kings — Hants, NS – Sun Aug 22 – United Church minister David Hewitt stepped down to take a new job with the United Church
• NDP – Mount Royal, QC – Mon Aug 23 – Vice-president of the Federation of Teachers of Jewish Schools Jeff Itcush was acclaimed (leader Jack Layton in attendance)
• NDP – Huron — Bruce, ON – Thu Sep 16 – NFU Ontario past-President Grant Robertson acclaimed (leader Jack Layton at the meeting)
• NDP – Vancouver Quadra, BC – Sat Oct 2 – HEU 2nd vice-president Victor Elkins was acclaimed
• NDP – Saint-Laurent — Cartierville, QC – Mon Oct 18 – Maria Ximena Florez, Director of the Baobab Familial centre for families, was acclaimed
• NDP – St. John's South — Mount Pearl, NL – Wed Oct 27 – Ryan Cleary stepped down, saying that he couldn't be both a journalist and a politician at the same time
• NDP – Saint-Léonard — Saint-Michel, QC – Fri Oct 29 – Immigrant outreach volunteer Roberta Peressini was acclaimed (leader Jack Layton in attendance)
• NDP – West Vancouver — Sunshine Coast — Sea-to-Sky Country, BC – Nov 7 – BC Ferries worker Terry Platt was acclaimed
• NDP – Malpeque, PE – Sat Nov 13 – Retired veteran of the armed forces, Rita Jackson, was acclaimed
• NDP – Newmarket — Aurora, ON – Sun Nov 21 – Kassandra Bidarian was acclaimed
• NDP – New Westminster — Coquitlam, BC – Sat Nov 27 – By-election victor, M.P. Fin Donnelly renominated by acclamation to run again in the general election
• NDP – Peace River, AB – Tue Dec 7 – Former renominated Green Party candidate, Métis lawyer Jennifer Villebrun, was acclaimed, after having resigned as Green candidate on August 21
• NDP – Châteauguay — Saint-Constant, QC – Sat Dec 11 – Université de Montréal maintenance workers local grievance officer Sylvain Chicoine was acclaimed
• NDP – Vancouver Island North, BC – Tue Jan 4 – Former M.P. Catherine Bell stepped down to concentrate on her new business
• NDP – Sarnia — Lambton, ON – Wed Jan 5 – Crissy Sinopole stepped down for personal reasons
• NDP – Trois Rivières, QC – Wed Jan 12 – Musician and teacher Robert Aubin acclaimed
• NDP – Stormont — Dundas — South Glengarry, ON – Sat Jan 15 – Darlene Jalbert resigned to take a new job with the Steelworkers
• NDP – Central Nova, NS – Sun Jan 16 – The brother of the provincial Speaker of the Legislature Charlie Parker, teacher and municipal councillor David Parker was acclaimed to run against Peter Mackay.
• NDP – Parry Sound — Muskoka, ON – Sun Jan 16 – Family doctor Wendy Wilson, by acclamation, to replace candidate Dianna Allen, who stepped down due to changes in family circumstances
• NDP – Abitibi — Baie James — Nunavik — Eeyou, QC – Fri Jan 21 – Sociologist and Chibougamau teacher Cochise Brunet-Trait was acclaimed
• NDP – Saint-Jean, QC – Fri Jan 21 – Environmentalist and engineer, former municipal candidate Tarik Brahmi was acclaimed
• NDP – Compton — Stanstead, QC – Fri Jan 21 – Human resources advisor Jean Rousseau was renominated
• NDP – Dartmouth — Cole Harbour, NS – Tue Jan 25 – Former provincial NDP leader Robert Chisholm acclaimed (leader Jack Layton at the meeting)
• NDP – Sarnia — Lambton, ON – Wed Jan 26 – Former Sarnia council candidate and filmmaker Brian White acclaimed to replace candidate Crissy Sinopole, who stepped down for personal reasons
• NDP – Jeanne-Le Ber, QC – Sun Jan 30 – Actor and Black Theatre Workshop Artistic Director Tyrone Benskin was acclaimed (leader Jack Layton was at the meeting)
• NDP – Okanagan — Shuswap, BC – Sun Jan 30 – Healthcare worker and union activist Nicole (Nikki) Inouye was acclaimed
• NDP – Cumberland — Colchester — Musquodoboit Valley, NS – Wed Feb 2 – Mark Austin stepped down to take a new job with the Coastal Communities Network
• NDP – Charlottetown, PE – Thu Feb 3 – Long time social justice advocate Joe Byrne was acclaimed
• NDP – Hull — Aylmer, QC – Thu Feb 3 – Former PSAC national president Nycole Turmel was acclaimed (leader Jack Layton was at the meeting)

Recent additions and deletions from the BQ slate:

• BQ – Montmagny — l'Islet — Kamouraska — Rivière-du-Loup, QC – Sun Jan 30 – Saint-Jean-Port-Joli municipal councillor Nathalie Arsenault was acclaimed

Recent additions and deletions from the Conservative party slate:

• Cons – St. Paul's, ON – Wed Sep 23, 2009 – Former Peter Kent campaign organizer and 2008 candidate against NDP Leader Jack Layton in Toronto — Danforth, Christina Perreault was acclaimed
• Cons – York West, ON – On or before Oct 18, 2009 – Past-president of the Black Business & Professional Association Audrey Walters became the candidate
• Cons – Don Valley East, ON – Nov 14, 2009 – Former riding campaign manager, small business owner Joe Daniel was acclaimed
• Cons – Vancouver East, BC – Fri Jan 15 – Philippine Journal publisher and editor-in-chief Irene Yatco was acclaimed
• Cons – New Westminster — Coquitlam, BC – Sat Jan 30 – By-election candidate and municipal councillor Diana Dilworth was renominated
• Cons – Scarborough Centre, ON – On or before Feb 9, 2010 – Real estate agent Roxanne James was renominated
• Cons – Dartmouth — Cole Harbour, NS – On or before May 18, 2010 – High school teacher and 2008 candidate Wanda Webber renominated
• Cons – Skeena — Bulkley Valley, BC – Mon Jun 7 – Former 2000 GE Independent candidate in Okanagan — Coquihalla, Clay Harmon, was acclaimed
• Cons – Mississauga South, ON – Thu Jun 10 – Former 2008 in Bramalea — Gore — Malton, Stella Ambler, was acclaimed
• Cons – Thunder Bay — Rainy River, ON – Mon Aug 9 – Businesswoman and niece of the former M.P., Maureen Comuzzi-Stehmann was acclaimed
• Cons – Thunder Bay — Superior North, ON – Tue Aug 31 – Nipigon Mayor Richard Harvey won a contested nomination over Richard Longtin
• Cons – Saint-Léonard — Saint-Michel, QC – Wed Sep 15 – Riccardo De Ioris was acclaimed
• Cons – Jeanne-Le Ber, QC – Wed Sep 15 – Lawyer Pierre Lafontaine was acclaimed
• Cons – Pierrefonds — Dollards, QC – Wed Sep 15 – One-time Liberal aide and 2008 Conservative candidate in Laval — Les Îles, Agop T. Evereklian was acclaimed
• Cons – Brome — Missisquoi, QC – Fri Sep 24 – Former Hill staffer Nolan Bauerle was acclaimed
• Cons – Haute-Gaspésie — La Mitis — Matane — Matapédia, QC – The prefect of Haute-Gaspésie Allen Cormier was acclaimed
• Cons – Richmond — Arthabaska, QC – Mon Dec 6 – Jean-Philippe Bachand, the former mayor of the town of Asbestos and brother of former Progressive Conservative M.P. for the riding André Bachand, was acclaimed
• Cons – Kings — Hants, NS – Thu Jan 6 – Former provincial environment and natural resources minister David Morse was acclaimed
• Cons – Nickel Belt, ON – Wed Jan 12 – Former 2008 Liberal nomination candidate and municipal councillor Lynne Reynolds was acclaimed
• Cons – Algoma — Manitoulin — Kaspuskasing, ON – Mon Jan 17 – First time candidate, retired CF Major Ray Sturgeon was acclaimed
• Cons – Nipissing — Temiskaming, ON – Mon Jan 24 – School board trustee and business consultant Jay Aspin was acclaimed

Rounding out our series of Liberal nomination news updates, after last time in Ontario, we now come to the west … arriving about the same time as leader Michael Ignatieff’s first bus-tour foray there, today in Batoche, SK.

The West

• Winnipeg North, MB – We’ve already mentioned that former Inkster MLA Kevin Lamoureux won the contested Liberal nomination against city councillor Mike Pagtakhan this past June 30, in the seat vacated last spring by long-time NDP M.P. Judy Wasylycia-Leis in order to run for Mayor.  He’ll now face the NDP’s Kevin Chief, Ray Larkin for the Conservatives, and John Harvie for the Green Party.
• Saskatoon – Humboldt, SK – The Ward 1 city councillor in Saskatoon, Darren Hill, won a nomination contest over Dr. Susan Hayton here last April 15, and will now join the NDP’s Denise Kouri, Independent and former Reform M.P. Jim Pankiw, and three-term Conservative M.P. Brad Trost on the campaign trail, along with a woman whose court-case is suddenly very well known to Canadians, the Green Party’s Sandra Finley who is involved in a legal dispute with Statistics Canada over the census, and is the former leader of their provincial party.  She was appointed in the riding this past December 21, 2009.  The Liberals have not won this seat since 1993 when they gained it for a single term as the Conservative vote split into the Reform and PCs, and the NDP vote fell by more than half, with half the drop switching to the Liberals, another chunk going to some new smaller parties, and the rest staying home.  One-term Liberal M.P. Georgette Sheridan lost to Jim Pankiw for the Reform Party in 1997 however, but by 2004 Pankiw had fallen out with his colleagues along the various routes by which Reformers found their way into the new Conservative Party, and so he ran as an independent, turning the riding into a four-way contest and nearly handing it to the NDP’s Nettie Wiebe who lost by just 417 votes to Trost, with Liberal businessman Patrick Wolfe barely another 18 votes behind.  Since then though, the Liberal vote has fallen to less than half its 2004 watermark, splitting apparently equally between the NDP, Conservatives, some to the Greens, and a few staying home.  Hill will have an 8,400 vote mountain to climb here to return to his party’s 1993 high watermark. (h/t the Liberal Scarf)
• Edmonton – St. Albert, AB – We can always count on Daveberta.ca for the latest on nomination news in that province, and indeed earlier this month he reported that Kevin Taron was acclaimed the Liberal candidate in this northwest Edmonton riding.  Taron has his work cut out for him there, because his party fell to third place behind the NDP in the last election, even though it outspent them 18% of the limit to 2%, and his local riding association’s financial returns for 2008 and 2009 are still not processed by Elections Canada (meaning at least the 2008 return was likely not filed on time, if not the 2009 one as well).  Well, I always admire someone who’s prepared to take on a challenge.  No NDP candidate has been confirmed as yet, but the Green’s Peter Johnstone is returning for another try.  They’re all trying to unseat first-time Conservative M.P. Brent Rathgeber, who won 62% of the vote, spending just 55% of the limit, on his first time running; but then that’s Alberta for you isn’t it!

So, gaps in the Liberal slate outnumber candidates right across the west.  They have:

• 7 candidates for 14 seats in Manitoba
• 4 candidates for 14 seats in Saskatchewan
• 8 candidates for 28 seats in Alberta, and
• 15 candidates for 36 in British Columbia

… which is 5 fewer than the NDP across the three prairie provinces, and 9 fewer across all 4 western provinces.  I haven’t finished fully updating the Green Party yet, but last I checked they had more candidates than either of the other two opposition parties (although I’m given to understand that some have since stepped down, so we’ll just have to wait for a more thorough review on that score).

Nevertheless, there is a little bit of Liberal nomination news to report from a few ridings in B.C., so let’s carry on with that now.  But you’ll have to pay close attention, because it involves two different bells and three kinds of green.  Ready?

• North Vancouver, BC – Former Liberal M.P. Don Bell was thinking about running federally again last fall, after he tried and failed to win the provincial BC Liberal nomination in North Vancouver–Lonsdale last year (the woman who defeated him, Naomi Yamamoto, went on to win the seat).  His former two-time Green opponent, “Green Jim” Stephenson was also thinking about about running there again too … but unfortunately for Don Bell, this time Green Jim wanted to run for the Liberals.  Long-time readers will remember “Green Jim” as the Green candidate who got sidelined when party leader Elizabeth May accepted the Green candidacy of Liberal-turned-Independent M.P. Blair Wilson in Green Jim’s new riding of West Vancouver – Sunshine Coast – Sea to Sky Country, BC, in order to gain a caucus member and hence one criterion for entering the Leader’s Debates.  Green Jim was out as the Green candidate there, Blair Wilson was in, Green Jim moved back to run in North Vancouver, May got into the Leader’s Debates, Wilson lost, she lost in Central Nova, and the Liberals lost the seat of North Vancouver held by Don Bell to first-time Conservative M.P. Andrew Saxton.  With me so far?  Good.  Anyway, this turn of events apparently gave Green Jim the idea that running for the Greens might not be the best way to advance his green causes, and since everyone was crossing the floor to help the environment and keep the Conservatives out, why not him too.  His campaign for the Liberal nomination in North Vancouver was reported by the blog North Vancouver Politics on September 23.  It came out in the comments section, however, that Green-Jim had not been green-lit as a Liberal candidate by the BC section of the Liberal party yet.  This caused Bill Bell — no relation to Don, but a former federal Liberal candidate, North Van city councillor, and now columnist with the North Shore News — to declare four days later that confusion reigned in federal politics, and this was not necessarily a good thing, based on his experience as a former NDPer who had run there as a Liberal in 2000: “In my case, I believe it confused the voters and at the same time turned them off. The NDP supporters thought I was a turncoat and many traditional Liberal voters just sat on their hands and viewed me as “not a real Liberal.” What on paper looked like a win-win was in fact a lose-lose on Election Day”.  For that reason Bill Bell endorsed Don Bell, although he allowed that the case for Green Jim running as a Liberal might be a bit stronger than it had been for him in 2000.  The riding association uploaded photos to its website later that week, but only of Don Bell.  The following week the riding president told the North Shore News that Green Jim’s name was in front of the green light committee, and he expected him to be approved, paving the way for a Liberal nomination race.  And after that I cannot find one printed word about the race or either of the candidates anywhere.  The Liberal Express is supposed to roll through Vancouver August 21-22, so perhaps we’ll hear more then.  Meanwhile the NDP is running some clown again … no really … as performer Michael Charrois won a contested nomination late February in order to carry his party’s banner once again.  But the Green Party has not identified any new candidate there as yet.
• Surrey North, BC – The 2000 Liberal candidate in this riding would like to run here again.  But you knew the story couldn’t be that simple, right.  Kwantlen College political science professor Shinder Purewal ran here against Chuck Cadman in the 2000 campaign, coming second.  Then he wanted to run across the river in Vancouver South in 2004, but he got sidelined when former NDP Premier Ujjal Dosanjh was appointed the Liberal candidate by incoming Prime Minister Paul Martin, with Purewal at least earning a three-year citizenship court judge consolation appointment instead.  But at the end of that term, Purewal found himself “flirting” with the Conservatives based on “disillusionment” with the Liberals over the sponsorship saga, and decided to support the election campaign of first-time Conservative M.P. Dona Cadman.  This is the same M.P. whom he now wants to run against having become “disillusioned” with the Prime Minister.  The NDP’s new candidate Jasbir Sandhu charged Purewal with “flip-flopping“, a practice that party is no doubt sensitive about, given that Dona Cadman had earlier endorsed the last NDP candidate there, single-term M.P. Penny Priddy.  Anyways, I’m told that Purewal had a potential opponent for the Liberal nomination, who did not get green-lit, but I haven’t seen much evidence of a nomination campaign on the web or Facebook, and no nomination is recorded at Elections Canada or on Wikipedia.  But again, Surrey is on the leader’s express tour itinerary, so we may hear further from our friends on the buses.  UPDATE:  I did find this article in the Georgia Straight that lists him as the candidate.

Anyhow, that’s a full lid on the Liberal nomination news update from the east coast to the west, although I’ll also be updating their nomination source information and websites shortly.

If you have nomination news to share, by all means pass it along by email and/or follow along @punditsguide on Twitter.  The next big challenge is getting the list of Green candidates up to date before their August convention.

Our catch up of Liberal nominations continues from the last post, as we move on to Ontario.

Ontario

Much easier to follow is the state of nominations in Ontario, owing to the well-documented list of meetings at the LPC-O website (thank you!). A few candidates have stepped down (we’ll get to them shortly), while a few more have joined the party ticket over the past few months, including:

• Barrie, ON – Paraplegic athlete and federal public servant Colin Wilson was acclaimed here last February 18, and will be taking a leave of absence from Public Works once the campaign begins. Wilson welcomed Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff to Barrie for two events Saturday as part of the Liberal Express summer tour. He’ll now be facing three-time candidate and two-term Conservative M.P. Patrick Brown, who narrowly defeated former Liberal M.P. Aileen Carroll in 2006, but went on to win over 52% of the vote in 2008 as the NDP largely held its vote, but the Liberals fell nearly 10,000 votes under candidate Rick Jones. 2,000 of them went to the Greens under three-time candidate Erich Jacoby-Hawkins, while 4,000 switched to Brown, and another 2,000 stayed home. The Green campaign here spent 63% of the limit, by the way, earning 11.1% of the vote — enough for a candidate rebate, but not enough to move out of fourth place and past the NDP, which kept its spending to a more modest 17% of the limit. Still, Jacoby-Hawkins must be hoping for a one-election lag in the return on that investment, as he’s running again for a fourth try, alongside Wilson and returning candidate Myrna Clarke for the NDP.
• Hamilton East – Stoney Creek, ON – This time last year, we were following the efforts of former mayor and candidate Larry Di Ianni to recruit his replacement as a candidate in this riding. Di Ianni ruled himself out, but tried and failed to recruit NDP city councillor Sam Merulla, followed by another city councillor, Maria Pearson. A year later, it was riding president Vito Sgro who found psychotherapist Michelle Stockwell, according to the Stoney Creek News, and she was acclaimed on March 11, 2010. She joined restauranteur Rob Silenzi, who was newly nominated for the Conservatives last fall, two-term NDP M.P. Wayne Marston, and returning Green Party candidate David Hart Dyke, chair of the Hamilton Waste Reduction Task Force. Looking at the results, it is hard to believe that the transposed riding boundaries here encompassed a Liberal vote of nearly 55% in 2000, representing over 24,000 voters. While the riding was a close Liberal-NDP and then NDP-Liberal contest in 2004 and 2006 (though Tony Valeri only held some 18,500 or so votes in those two contests), by 2008 the Liberal vote had fallen to 13,500 under Di Ianni, even as the Conservatives also fell slightly, the Greens picked up 500 votes, and the NDP held and slightly improved on its 2,000 gain from 2004-to-2006, reaching nearly 20,000 votes (or 41%) on Marston’s reelection in 2008 from a starting point of just 4,400 (or 10%) back in 2000. It just goes to show that 10% seats, if in traditional areas of strength having the right demographics, with the right national campaign and local candidate, can still turn into surprises on election day — an election or two down the road.
• Nickel Belt, ON – Unlike its neighbouring riding Sudbury, this riding sat without any apparent Liberal candidate interest for quite a while, but then broke out into a contested nomination in the spring between the owner of two local radio stations and former miner, Joe Cormier, and Jacqueline Gauthier of Sudbury who runs a community health centre. Cormier won the split decision on May 15, 2010 with 328 of 800 members voting, according to the Sudbury Star. With the advice of former M.P. Ray Bonin, he will now face first-time NDP M.P. Claude Gravelle, who finally overtook Bonin’s replacement Louise Portelance after two earlier runs against Bonin himself, as the Liberal vote fell to nearly half its 2000 levels, the vast majority of the drop just staying home in 2008. No other party’s candidates have been selected as yet, although the Green Party’s 2008 candidate Fred Twilley tried unsuccessfully to win did win his party’s nod in Sudbury next door.  [Sorry about that, Mr. Twilley!]
• Carleton – Mississippi Mills, ON – Another contested Liberal nomination unfolded about two weeks later in this riding located just west of Ottawa, with the result that a retired lieutenant-colonel will be challenging a retired general. Karen McCrimmon, the first woman to lead an air squadron as Commanding Officer of 429 Squadron in Trenton, won the preferential ballot on May 27 over author Bernie Muzeen, lawyer and advocate for the hearing impaired Scott Simser, and business systems coordinator for the Social Services department, Bev Miller, with approximately 150 members voting. Her nomination would have rounded out the Liberal slate for the Ottawa-area (National Capital Region) and Eastern Ontario ridings, but for the resignation of two area candidates which we’ll get to shortly. McCrimmon will be facing three-time Conservative M.P. and retired general Gordon O’Connor, whose vote share has increased from 50% to 57% over the last three elections in this redistributed riding, as the Liberal vote has fallen in spite of running increasingly well-funded campaigns. Still McCrimmon may be counting on the Nortel retirees issue, along with the possibility that having qualified for the MP’s pension and passing the age of 70, Mr. O’Connor might run for at most one more term. But with the Conservative riding association there sitting on assets of $172K (or 177% of the spending limit) at the end of 2009, any potential successor of his would be easily able to run a well-financed campaign.
• Elgin – Middlesex – London, ON – The sponsor of a luncheon to thank Conservative M.P. Joe Preston and his provincial Liberal counterpart for their tireless work in securing stimulus funds will now be one of Preston’s opponents in the next election, as Liberals were set to meet this past Thursday July 15 to formalize the acclamation of outgoing West Elgin Mayor Graham Warwick as their standard-bearer for the upcoming campaign. He joins returning NDP candidate and CAW Local 2168 president Ryan Dolby, and new federal Green Party candidate John Fisher who has previously run for his party at the provincial level. I don’t have a date for Mr. Fisher’s nomination, in order to add him to the database, and he’s not on the party’s public list of candidates as yet, but I am continuing to investigate (and if you can help, please get in touch by email). The riding’s Google Map demonstrates Preston’s dominance, and yet because of the area’s employment problems during the recession and the party’s confidence in Dolby, the NDP named this riding as one of its HST targets late last year, and indeed Dolby won more geographic polls than the Liberal candidate in 2008 (mainly in St. Thomas and 2 in the London area), in spite of the Liberals’ continued hold on second-place and the fact that Dolby’s campaign spent just 15% of the limit last time around. The West Elgin area from which Mr. Warwick hails boasted one of the two polls won by the Liberals last time. Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff is coming through the area on his way from London to Chatham the first week of August, but so far is not expected to stop there.

In other Ontario nomination news:

• Ottawa West – Nepean, ON – Readers may recall the hiccups encountered by former Liberal M.P. David Pratt on his way to re-securing his party’s nomination in this Ottawa-area bellwether riding, when he was briefly challenged by Janet Yale last July, nearly necessitating his return to Ottawa from Iraq where he had contract commitments in order to defend his candidacy. Yale demurred however and tried to win the nomination in Ottawa Centre, ON instead, allowing Pratt to stay on in Iraq. However on April 1 this year with no election on the horizon at the time, Pratt announced that his increasing commitments outside Canada prevented him from continuing as candidate, and he stepped down. Since then a nomination contest has been developing, which includes Hill denizen and long-time Liberal insider Anita Vandenbeld, and University of Ottawa eBusiness and Computer Science professor Nour El-Kadri who had been selling memberships to win the nomination once before, prior to the 2008 election when Pratt was appointed by then-leader Stéphane Dion. It is unknown when the nomination meeting will be held, however the successful candidate will be facing two-term Conservative M.P. John Baird, and returning NDP candidate Marlene Rivier, a psychological associate and Chair of the Ottawa Health Coalition, along with new Green Party candidate, organic entrepreneur Mark Mackenzie. The Liberals and Conservatives riding associations were both sitting on fairly large bank balances at the end of 2009, the latter twice as large as the former, however ($150K vs. $75K, or 170% vs. 85% of the riding spending limit).
• Ancaster – Dundas – Flamborough – Westdale, ON – The Liberals’ star catch from last August in this riding just outside Hamilton, the former CHCH-TV anchor Dan McLean, stepped down suddenly on June 7 of this year. Speculation ranged from a mayoralty bid in Hamilton (although that was subsequently denied), to various difficulties with the riding association, according to a Pundits’ Guide commenter the other week, although in his statement McLean stressed that he remained a supporter of Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff. Nevertheless, his departure leaves Michelle Stockwell in Hamilton East – Stoney Creek, ON as the party’s only nominated candidate in the Hamilton area. The riding is currently held by two-term Conservative M.P. David Sweet, who was able to defeat one-term Liberal M.P. Russ Powers by less than 5% of the vote in 2006 through drawing previous non-voters out to the polls, and then continued to increase his raw vote in 2008 by 2,400, as the Liberal vote dropped a further 6,400, and the NDP shed 3,800 votes as well. Only the Greens under new candidate Peter Ormond were able to improve upon their 2006 result in opposition, and indeed Ormond is back for another try this time. He and Sweet will also be joined by first-time candidate Alex Johnstone, who defeated another young woman Shilo Davis (later one of the the organizers of the anti-prorogation rallies) to win the contested NDP nomination last November. No word on the Liberal riding’s candidate search plans, but we’ll keep a look out.
• Prince Edward – Hastings, ON – A recent marriage and 10-month old baby were behind the decision of Liberal candidate Ken Cole to step down a week later in this eastern Ontario riding, reported the Belleville Intelligencer. Cole had been acclaimed last August, and was expecting to face three-term Conservative M.P. Daryl Kramp and three-time NDP candidate retired teacher Michael McMahon in the next campaign. Candidate search is to recommence immediately, riding president Bryan Bondy told the Intelligencer, although one hoped-for nominee, Belleville Mayor Neil Ellis, was planning another municipal run instead he said. Meanwhile, for the reasons we speculated on in the earlier post on Michael Ignatieff’s bus tour, indeed they did skip over Belleville, an omission that was noted locally. This riding was formerly held by Liberal M.P. Lyle Vanclief, who bested former provincial cabinet minister and leadership contestant Dennis Timbrell twice, owing to strong campaigns by first the Reform and then Canadian Alliance candidates. The merger of those two parties’ raw vote was sufficient on its own to surpass the Liberals in 2004, notwithstanding the tripling of the NDP vote over the same time period. Since then the Liberals have shed 6,000 votes, of which 4,000 switched to Kramp, and another 2,000 either stayed home or voted Green.
• Kingston and the Islands, ON – So, now that Commons Speaker Peter Milliken has confirmed he’s not running again, four candidates have already stepped forward to announce bids for a Liberal nomination race that is promised to be “free and fair“, and concluded by the fall. Running are a businessman who chairs an alternative energy coalition, riding association treasurer Ted Hsu; the Dean of the Queen’s University Law School and riding vice-president, Bill Flanagan; local lawyer and former riding president Philip Osanic (who is married to city councillor Lisa Osanic); along with the retiring mayor of Kingston, Harvey Rosen, who was introduced by Milliken’s sister at his announcement, although Flanagan stood behind Milliken himself at his barbecue retirement announcement. Kingston This Week did a rundown of the four candidates, as did the Kingston Herald across two stories. And according to this Whig Standard story from Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff’s bus visit of the other day, several more candidates may yet be testing the water, such as perhaps former city councillor Bittu George who has been mentioned before but has yet to announce plans. Meanwhile, the Conservatives have been targeting the riding with mailings and phone calls over the past year, Liberal riding president Ron Hartling told the Whig Standard. The successful candidate will join Conservative candidate Brian Abrams, NDP candidate Daniel Beals, and Green candidate Eric Walton on the campaign trail. We last ran down the riding’s history and profile here, when Milliken’s retirement was first speculated upon.
• Vaughan, ON – We recently looked at this riding northwest of Toronto in the contest of who might run for the Conservatives here, but who might run if as expected long-time Liberal M.P. Maurizio Bevilacqua steps down to run for Mayor (something he hotly denied interest in doing during the last federal election, while refusing to rule it out either; viz: “‘I don’t blame people for thinking of me,’ said Bevilacqua. ‘There aren’t that many people around the community that has experience in that. … If it was me, I would think of me, if you know what I mean’,” as he told the Toronto Star). Bevilacqua was originally expected to step down around May 1, but was involved in negotiations with Jason Kenney over provisions of the Refugee Bill until early June, at which point the Liberal Caucus interceded. This may have delayed any announcement on his part, although as we reported earlier, MaurizioBevilacqua.com is promising a new website soon, and there’s no Liberal logo on the splash page. In any event, while the last election saw Bevilacqua winning with some 50% of the vote, he lost 9,000 votes over the previous election, 3,000 of whom switched to the Conservatives’ Richard Lorello, and the other 6,000 of which stayed home, and indeed his margin has been whittled down over the years from 63% (yes, you read that right) in the transposed results of the 2000 election, to just under 15% in 2008.
• Chatham-Kent – Essex, ON – Liberal candidate Steve Pickard is facing six charges in relation to an unspecified dust-up with three individuals at the Chatham city council building, but is returning to work at council this coming Monday evening, the Chatham Daily News reports. According to the QMI Agency (the former Sun Media), Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff is sticking with Pickard, but refusing to comment on the charges themselves. The son of former Liberal M.P. Jerry Pickard, Steve Pickard won a contested nomination against the son of another former Liberal M.P., Matt Daudlin, for the right to face two-term Conservative M.P. Dave Van Kesteren. According to the draft schedule of the tour, which was obtained by Public Eye Online, Ignatieff’s bus will be arriving in Chatham on Sunday, August 8, and so we’ll see how that’s all handled then.
• Essex, ON – Another question mark we’ll get more information on in that leg of the Liberal Express relates to the political future of Essex Liberal candidate Nelson Santos. Currently the mayor of Kingsville, Santos made noises this past March that he might step down as Liberal candidate to take another run for the mayor’s chair, telling the Windsor Star that he would announce a definitive decision by June (note: the only copy of this story I can find online anymore is at the Blogging Tories site, but I did see the original at the time). This announcement came after some nasty dispute within the county became public, but also followed on a call by three-time Conservative M.P. Jeff Watson last fall for Santos to step down from his municipal role after receiving the federal Liberal nomination. Santos said in March that he prided himself on completing terms of office he was elected to, and would thus pick either the municipal run or the federal nomination, not both. Naturally, his possible renewed candidacy coupled with a delay in finalizing it did not prove popular with other potential mayoral candidates, and so at the beginning of April Kingsville city councillor Chris Lewis announced his campaign on a “Kingsville First” platform, and called on Santos “to end the hedging of his electoral bets”, saying he was running for Mayor whether Santos eventually decided to or not. Then with no announcement from Santos by the beginning of June either, deputy mayor Katherine Gunning lived up to her name and announced she too was running for Mayor, and “wasn’t budging, no matter what … Santos decides”. The possibility of a delayed federal election seemed to have been what changed Santos’ mind on the importance of only running for one job at a time, per his explanation to the Windsor Star: “If the federal election isn’t for two years, which may be a potential scenario, then maybe I’ll revisit the campaigning for mayor”. Meanwhile, a tornado hit Leamington and the outskirts of Kingsville a few days later, and Santos has had nothing to say about his political future since then. Besides Santos and Watson, the NDP’s Taras Natyshak (who placed second here in 2008) is also running, and this riding was named as one of his party’s HST target seats as well last December.

I’ll conclude by adding that in my blogpost about the Liberal tour earlier this week, I reported that it seemed to be the case that Bryan Ransom was the Liberal candidate in Durham, ON riding.  Apparently that’s not the case at all.

So, I count about 16 holes in the Liberal Party’s Ontario slate then, either where candidates stepped down, or where they face strong Conservatives or NDPers.

Later today, we’ll finish up with the West.